Temperature and humidity are likely to contribute a maximum of 18% of the variation in transmission. R esults suggest that temperature does positively correlate with infection rates spread, whereas it negatively correlates with humidity.
Two further studies report “daily mortality of COVID-19 is positively associated with diurnal temperature range (DTR) but negatively with relative humidity.” For example, grouping cases by days of exposure may introduce a systemic error if the actual exposures for the case vary significantly or other measures were being introduced, i.e. Assessment of exposures is prone to errors that can systematically distort the group-level exposure. Other circulating viruses, such as influenza do follow a seasonal effect, and therefore co-infection rates will go down, which may impact on mortality. Therefore, any conclusion has high uncertainty over their predictions. It is important to note that all of these studies are potentially biased by uncontrolled confounding. This study suggested a higher possibility for SARS to reoccur in spring than in autumn or winter. A sharp rise or decrease in the environmental temperature related to the cold spell led to an increase of the SARS cases because of the possible influence of the weather on the human immune system. The authors report that asynchronous seasonal global outbreaks were much likelier.Īnalysis of the SARS outbreak in Hong Kong, Guangzhou, Beijing, and Taiyuan found the optimum environmental temperature associated with the SARS cases was between 16 to 28 degrees Celsius, which may encourage virus growth. If the COVID-19 pandemic follows SARS CoV-2 trends, then a worst-case scenario of a synchronous global pandemic would appear unlikely. They also report that the 2002-3 SARS-CoV outbreak was linked to similar climate conditions. They found that for every 1℃ increase in the minimum temperature led to a decrease in the cumulative number of cases by 0.86.Ī modelling study suggested a transitory reduction in incidence may occur cautioning “The onset of spring and summer could, for example, give the impression that SARS-CoV-2 has been successfully contained, only for infections to increase again in 2020-2021 winter season”.Īnother modelling study found that the current spread suggests a preference for cool and dry conditions. Studies exploring the effect of weather, mainly temperature and humidity, on the transmission of 2019-nCoVĪ cross-sectional study correlated cases with mean temperature explored the effect of temperature on transmission in 429, mainly Chinese, cities. We conducted a rapid review of evidence to explore if climate conditions may influence the spread of (SARS-CoV-2. However, for the first time, China is also reporting no new local cases. As of March 21st 2020, China experienced 81,008 registered cases of novel coronavirus with 3,255 deaths. At the time when the first case was recognised, Wuhan was experiencing its winter season, where the average temperatures can range from 1 to 11 degrees Celsius. The virus is known to have originated in the port city of Wuhan, in the central Hubei province, China. Most countries across the globe have now implemented a suite of strategies to reduce transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) and mitigate the effects of the COVID-19. The weather effect is minimal, and all estimates are subject to significant biases reinforcing the need for robust public health measures. This phenomenon may manifest itself through two mechanisms: the stability of the virus and the effect of the weather on the host. Translated in Portuguese by Tatiane Bomfim Ribeiro, Rachel Riera, Oxford-Brazil EBM AllianceĪlthough much of the data has not been peer-reviewed yet, emerging evidence appears to suggest that weather conditions may influence the transmission of the novel coronavirus ( SARS-CoV-2), with cold and dry conditions appearing to boost the spread. On behalf of the Oxford COVID-19 Evidence Service TeamĬentre for Evidence-Based Medicine, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences,Ĭorrespondence to Weather conditions influence on the transmission of SARS-COV-2.pdf Do weather conditions influence the transmission of the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)?
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